BC NDP - John Horgan

John Horgan was part of the Glen Clark administration of the 1990's and also served as an administrative assistant to Glen Clark during that era.

Horgan has a reputation for bombastic rhetoric, has quite a temper, and was known for being strident and overbearing in pushing his point of view as a staffer.

http://www.timescolonist.com/Finally+serious+lead/4088715/story.html#ixzz1Ahj299mK

Glen Clark era political strategist Bill Tieleman confirmed to Monday Magazine, in a 2007 profile, that "Horgan can be quite hot-tempered." "As an elected official, it can be fatal.”

http://www.vancouversun.com/news/John+Horgan+enters+leadership+race/4088508/story.html#ixzz1AhjM0Pmj

That matter could very well be Horgan's proverbial Achilles' Heel.

As Vancouver Sun columnist Vaughn Palmer succinctly states:

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"Nor are the Liberals the only target for his periodic displays of temper.

He showed no mercy in roughing up, rhetorically speaking, the baker’s dozen dissidents who forced out party leader Carole James. In the wake of that showdown, many New Democrats will be wondering whether Horgan is the right candidate to succeed James and reunite a bitterly divided party.

He’s not a reaching-out kind of guy."

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http://www.vancouversun.com/news/pink+pumps+fool+John+Horgan+tough+customer/4088592/story.html#ixzz1Ai0hLi6r

Horgan is also to the left of Carole James and is known for his steadfast ideological positions. Longtime left-wing NDP party stalwart Bob Williams recently stated his preference for either Horgan or Adrian Dix as NDP party leader further confirming their ideological positions left of Carole James.

http://www.straight.com/article-367576/vancouver/bob-williams-prefers-john-horgan-adrian-dix-over-mike-farnworth-ndp-leader

Horgan utilizes alot of left-wing anti-capitalist rhetoric in his diatribes such as:

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Horgan describes what he calls a “capital strike” that hit B.C. after the NDP was elected. His terminology hints at a conspiracy of capitalists to pull investment from B.C., to punish the NDP.

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http://www.bclocalnews.com/greater_vancouver/northshoreoutlook/opinion/114572709.html#

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Mr. Horgan took a strong anti-corporate line while articulating his commitment to preserve old growth forests. Mr. Horgan stated he was in favour of both wealth creation and the redistribution of wealth. 
"Private sector investment is not a free ticket to no taxation and no regulation."
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http://www.publiceyeonline.com/archives/005695.html#more


In the latest Angus Reid Strategies poll, only 10% of British Columbians believed that Horgan would make a "good choice" as leader for the BC NDP. Among NDP voters that figure increased to 20%. Horgan also placed far behind both Mike Farnworth (40%/49%) and Adrian Dix (24%/37%) in that category.

http://www.angus-reid.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/12/2010.12.23_Politics_BC.pdf

Left-wing NDP MLA Claire Travena recently asked these questions of the potential three candidates:

1. I am a firm believer that equity is achieved through redistribution. I believe in a progressive tax system in which those who earn more, pay more.

2. Would you campaign on increasing income taxes and specific changes to the tax system to ensure corporations and business pay more?

3. Do you agree public resources should be held in public hands and used for the public good?

4. If so, which resources would you include and how would you ensure that the transfer to public ownership is made?

5. How would you guarantee that public ownership be maintained?

http://thetyee.ca/Blogs/TheHook/Election-Central/2011/01/26/TrevenasQuestions/

These are certainly issues of a left-wing nature. And Claire Travena has decided that John Horgan is even more to the left than Adrian Dix and decided to throw her support to Horgan.

Horgan has apparently re-inforced his left-wing views on taxation as follows:

"Horgan would also re-examine taxation policy in B.C. He says the tax break the Liberal government provided a decade ago to corporations and large income earners amounts to an annual $2.1 billion shortfall in the provincial coffers. He also doesn’t believe all that money was re-invested in B.C."

http://www.bclocalnews.com/vancouver_island_north/campbellrivermirror/news/115212084.html

At the end of the day, Dix, Farnworth, and Horgan will likely place first, second, and third respectively in leadership balloting.

BC NDP Strikes Again

Today renowned pothead Dana Larsen threw his hat into the BC NDP leadership race, the first candidate out of the gate.

Shades of Cheech and Chong were envisioned by BC NDP party president Moe Sihota as he attempted to derail Larsen's candidacy later today - "Up In Smoke" that is:

Of course, Larsen has had his own previous Cheech and Chong moments:

At the end of today, the BC NDP might want to choose a new party theme song:

Christy Clark for the BC Liberals and Mike Farnworth for the BC NDP

A new Angus Reid Strategies poll has been released with the following top line results (compared with an ARS poll from 2 weeks ago):

Liberal: 38% (+2%)
NDP: 38% (+2%)
Green: 12% (-2%)
Conservative: 7% (+1%)
Other/Ind.: 5% (-3%)

Status quo in the party preference standings.

Liberal Leadership Standings:

1. Christy Clark (as a "Good Choice"):
Voters Overall: 46% (+5%)
Liberal Voters: 66% (+15%)

2. Kevin Falcon:
Voters Overall: 28% (+1%)
Liberal Voters: 45% (+3%)

3. George Abbott:
Voters Overall: 25% (+1%)
Liberal Voters: 33% (-2%)

The current overall momentum in the Liberal leadership race is with Christy Clark.

NDP Leadership Standings:

1. Mike Farnworth (as a "Good Choice):
Voters Overall: 40% (+6%)
NDP Voters: 49% (+6%)

2. Adrian Dix:
Voters Overall: 24% (+2%)
NDP Voters: 37% (+4%)

The current overall momentum in the NDP leadership race is with Mike Farnworth.

http://www.ctvbc.ctv.ca/servlet/an/local/CTVNews/20101222/bc_liberals_poll_101222/20101222?hub=BritishColumbiaHome

New Mustel Poll - BC Liberals Take 5% Lead Over BC NDP

Mustel completed its last opinion poll just after the resignation of Liberal leader Gordon Campbell. The party standings at that time were:

Liberal: 37%
NDP: 42%

Today's Mustel poll taken after the resignation of NDP leader Carole James shows the following:


Liberal: 41% (+4%)
NDP: 36% (-6%)

This opinion poll is the first taken since the May, 2009 election showing the Liberals in the lead over the NDP mainly as a result of the HST fiasco.

Pollster Evi Mustel has also confirmed to the Vancouver Sun the following:
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Mustel said the B.C. Liberal rebound is due to a move by female voters — the key swing demographic in provincial politics — away from the NDP.

The gender gap in B.C. politics, with women favouring the NDP and men backing the B.C. Liberals, no longer stands, said Mustel.

“Historically, when the B.C. Liberals are doing well in the polls they have the support of women, but when they start falling, it’s usually the women that go first.”

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That's an impressive decline for the NDP in terms of the female vote and vice versa with the Liberals. And Evi Mustel provides some further insight into the current reversal of fortunes of both the Liberals and NDP:

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Mustel said that Campbell’s resignation, the subsequent B.C. Liberal leadership race with two female candidates, plus the crisis over Carole James’ leadership, are probably the factors behind the marked erosion of NDP support among women.
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http://www.vancouversun.com/news/Liberals+have+five+point+lead+over+Mustel+poll/3984199/story.html#ixzz18FWNqXxp

Moe Sihota Moves BC NDP Along Road To Ruin

Ever since NDP leader Carole James recruited former NDP MLA Moe Sihota to run for party president, signs abounded that the NDP would rue the day. Why? Moe is a toxic figure and it's evident that he would eventually move the NDP along a road to ruin.

Yesterday's Penticton NDP constituency gathering, which included ousted MLA Bob Simpson and dissident MLA Norm Macdonald re-inforced the schisms within the NDP. Furthermore, more damning revelations have surfaced, which does not bode well for future NDP fortunes.

From the Penticton Western News:
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Perhaps the most dramatic episode of an evening filled with Simpson and MacDonald outlining their criticism and concerns with party and their prescriptions for change was when last-minute attendee NDP MLA Harry Lali took the floor to expose his support for Simpson.

“I was never kicked out of caucus for anything I did, and I was a repeat offender,” said Lali. “Somebody wanted to shut him up from asking the right questions ... and get him the hell out of there. That is why he (was) kicked out.”

After the meeting, Simpson said his fate was sealed once he started asking questions about the ethical nature of Sihota’s activities, especially when it came to decisions regarding withholding money from riding associations and Sihota’s decision to not let the party know he was going to be accepting money from three unions when he ran and won as NDP president.

“Moe Sihota admitted at provincial council that he made a deal with the unions before he even stood for election that he would get paid for the job,” said Simpson.

“When he stood at convention, he never declared that: ‘Here are the grounds that (the party) will elect me as president. I will get paid $74,000 a year so know that (because) that is one of my requirements.’

“So the convention was not told. He was elected, as far as I am concerned, on an unethical premise, because he did not reveal that. We never knew as a caucus. The party executive never knew that he was getting this pay from the unions until 10 months into it.”

Simpson said that once Sihota took over as president Carole James started using bully politics.

“It’s Moe Sihota. One hundred per cent Moe Sihota,” said Simpson after the meeting. “Moe Sihota is the penultimate bully politician.”

Simpson said that a fundamental weakness in James’ personality, buoyed by Sihota, is her inability to embrace others’ strengths.

“A good political leader in my mind needs to sit there and say, ‘OK, I have got (the MLAs) I have got, now what are all their strengths and how can I maximize those strengths,’” he said.

“She is frightened by them. She sees it wrong and I think the yellow scarf campaign this weekend proved that in spades. Instead of embracing all the people that were saying, ‘We are struggling.’ And saying what is the nature of that struggle and how do we fix it. It is, ‘You are struggling, you better do what I damn well tell you to do.’”

Delegates at the meeting in Victoria last Saturday sported yellow scarves and buttons to show their support for James while 13 MLAs in attendance made a point of not wearing a scarf or joining in the ovations for James’ speech that opened the weekend meeting.

“A lot of people described it as cult-like,” said Simpson. “It is clearly insidious and appalling in a party that prides itself on diversity; prides itself on individual rights and freedoms. And if you look at some of the people in the 13 — who does Carole James think she is to call Jenny Kwan a dissident and a complainer?”
Simpson said the yellow scarf episode is an example of what needs to change in the party.

“Moe Sihota is one of a cadre of people who broke the NDP in the 1990s end ended up collapsing (the caucus) down to two people, and now he is back in charge of the NDP again and he is going to do the same thing,” he said.

http://www.bclocalnews.com/okanagan_similkameen/pentictonwesternnews/news/110711569.html

The Downfall of Carole James

Carole James has never connected with the public of BC. In fact, her personal approval levels are currently at 25%, which lags far behind her own party by a 22% margin, according to a recent Angus Reid Strategies poll. These numbers are a bad omen for the future political prospects of the NDP as James has the potential to drag down her own party numbers, considering that NDP support is quite soft in terms of considerable vote parking going on right now.

The removal of MLA Bob Simpson from the NDP caucus was the starting point of the downfall of Carole James.

So far, those NDP constituency associations that have requested a full blown leadership convention in November, 2011 include:

1. Cariboo North;
2. Penticton;
3. Fraser Nicola;
4. Nanaimo-North Cowichan;
5. West Kootenay-Boundary;
6. Powell River-Sunshine Coast;
7. North Coast;
8. Kamloops North Thompson;
9. Kamloops South Thompson;

And then we have other NDP MLA's who don't come and and fully support Carole James but state: 

"For right now, Carole is the duly elected leader of the party. It's not for me to determine whether or not that's correct."

Those NDP MLA's with these sentiments include:

1. Doug Routley (Nanaimo-North Cowichan)
2. Lana Popham (Saanich South)
3. Claire Travena (North Island)
4. Michael Sather (Maple Ridge – Pitt Meadows)
5. Norm Macdonald (Columbia River-Revelstoke); 
6. Leonad Krog (Nanaimo); 


And other NDP constituency associations such as Nelson-Creston and Abbotsford-Mission are also raising concerns about party president Moe Sihota.

http://www.vancouversun.com/riding+officials+want+oust+James/3805092/story.html

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/british-columbia/ndp-officials-hold-leaders-fate-in-their-hands/article1792337/

To top it off, an unscientific on-line Globe and Mail poll with 5,040 responses has this question:

"Is Carole James ready to be B.C.'s next premier?"

 

• Yes
• No

Results & past polls

Yes 21% (1035 votes)

No 79% (4005 votes)

Now Carole James has shrugged of these negative sentiments as follows:


"James puts down the unrest to a few "complainers" in the party."

http://www.cknw.com/Channels/Reg/NewsLocal/Story.aspx?ID=1309851 

If NDP members do not believe that Carole James can lead BC, how is the NDP expected to convince British Columbians that she can lead BC?

The stage has now been set for considerable in-fighting and a probable blood bath within NDP ranks, which will negatively impact their future political fortunes. 

The Prosperity Mine and the Riding of Cariboo-Chilcotin

The two largest towns in the riding of Cariboo-Chilcotin are Williams Lake and 100 Mile House. The riding is somewhat socially conservative and was a long-time Social Credit stronghold. In the 2005 election the NDP narrowly took the riding from the Liberals and in 2009 the Liberals narrowly took the riding from the NDP. The close results probably harkens to the sale of BC Rail in 2003, which mainline runs through the riding.

A major controversy in the riding is the proposed Prosperity Mine, which would cause the decimation of Fish Lake and is opposed by the First Nations in the area.

That said, considerable local support exists for the Prosperity Mine as follows:

1. Cariboo Regional District;
2. Williams Lake council;
3. Quesnel council;
4. 100 Mile House council;
5. Wells council;

http://www.opinion250.com/blog/view/17204/1/cariboo+regional+district+supports+prosperity+mine

A recent public opinion poll from the riding also confirms that the Prosperity Mine has considerable public support:

70% of decided voters want the federal cabinet to approve the mine;
30% of decided voters do not want the federal cabinet to approve the mine;

Even a majority of New Democrat voters from the 2008 federal election - 62% - want the mine approved.

http://issuu.com/wlteditor/docs/prosperity_mine_survey_results?viewMode=magazine

With 100% support from the regional district as well as all of the towns in the region in addition to the strong 70% approval from local residents the Prosperity Mine has considerable support.

And local politics now come into play. Apparently the local Liberal MLA, Donna Barnett, is targeted for recall by the Fight HST campaign. Barnett is on the record as supporting the Prosperity Mine. New Democrats are opposed. As a result, will a recall campaign become successful and if so, will local residents vote for New Democrat Charlie Wyse (former MLA) who opposes the mine?